If Donald Trump manages to return to the White House in 2025, he will break a record that has stood for more than a century.
History question for you: In more than two centuries, how many incumbent Americans have lost presidential elections, and then subsequently won the White House?
Answer is one. His name was Grover Cleveland and he died in 1908.
Donald Trump has a chance to become another.
We are clearly far from the 2024 election, but Mr Trump He has already made it clear that he wants to be president again.
In private, he is reportedly telling colleagues that He hopes to be “restored” before the end of 2021. That’s not going to happen.
But nothing is stopping Mr Trump from seeking the presidency again in 2024. And if he reaches that goal, it would be an incredibly rare feat.
Here’s everything you need to know about that potential run.
Can Trump run for president again?
Absolutely. Under the U.S. Constitution, anyone who is 35 years of age or older, a natural-born citizen of the country, and at least 14 years old can run for president.
The 22nd Amendment limits the president to two terms, but since Mr. Trump has only served one term, that’s not an issue here.
What is to happen first?
Trump would need to win the Republican presidential nomination.
The nominee is decided through a primary process. Whoever wants to represent the party campaigns for the nomination, and Republican voters choose the candidate of their choice.
At the moment, the polling is pretty clear: Nearly half of Republicans say they would choose Mr. Trump. His closest rival, former Vice President Mike Pence, is trapped in adolescence. If he runs, he will be highly favored.
What has Trump said about running again?
Mr Trump has always liked to be hesitant about his future plans – he is big at making secrets – but all indications are that he is inclined towards running.
Speaking to his daughter-in-law Lara Trump in March, Mr Trump said his supporters “expect” to seek the White House in 2024.
in an interview with Fox Business In late April, he said he was “100 percent thinking about running again”.
In May, he told talk show host Candace Owens that he looked forward to “making an announcement at the right time.”
“It’s too early. But I think people are very happy when I make a certain announcement,” Mr. Trump told listeners to “stay tuned.”
in June, Reacting to Facebook’s decision to ban him until at least 2023, he said the company’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg won’t get any more cushy dinners “the next time I’m in the White House.”
To be “next time”, he would obviously need to run again.
Who Will Seek the Republican Nomination?
If Mr Trump does indeed run, there is every chance that no note will oppose him. The same thing happened in 2020.
But he was a current president at the time, and incumbents are rarely challenged for his party’s nomination. This time may be different.
So who are the potential contenders?
Mr Pence, who served as Mr Trump’s loyal vice president for four years, may have to go – although he is not in favor of many Republicans as he unilaterally (and illegally) called Trump’s defeat to Joe Biden. refused to reverse.
How out of favor? Well, some rioters stormed the Capitol on January 6th Heard shouting “Hang Mike Pence”. It gives you an idea.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will be the immediate top-tier candidate, winning praise among Republicans for his handling of the coronavirus, which focused on keeping the state’s economy as open and unrestricted as possible.
South Dakota Governor Christie Noem was another skeptical leader about COVID restrictions, and she has a national profile.
On the more moderate side of the party, former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley is often touted as a potential presidential candidate, although she has invited ridicule. Repeatedly counterattacking Mr Trump’s support.
Pro-Trump senators like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Josh Hawley have clear presidential ambitions. Mr. Cruz and Mr. Paul ran against Mr. Trump for the Republican nomination in 2016, and were unsuccessful, although Mr. Cruz took second place.
Should Mr Trump stay out of the race, his son Donald Jr. can think of a bid.
and of the few remaining anti-Trump Republicans, Congresswoman Liz Cheney is probably the most likely To attempt a challenge.
What about those criminal investigations?
Mr Trump is currently facing some criminal investigation, One is focusing on the finances of the Trump Organization, and another zeroing on His clumsy attempt to put pressure on the election officials In reversing his defeat to Mr. Biden in Georgia.
This investigation can lead nowhere. But what if they don’t? Say Mr. Trump is prosecuted. Say he is guilty.
None of this will stop him from running in 2024. Naturally, a criminal case or conviction would make it harder to gain public support, but he could still enter the race legally.
How old will Trump be in 2024?
He will be 78 years old, same age Joe Biden is now.
Both of these people are quite old by historical standards. Mr Trump was the oldest president ever elected to a first term after taking office in 2016, surpassing Ronald Reagan. Mr Biden is the oldest elected full stop ever.
Who will face Trump in the general election?
Mr Biden’s age is a factor here. When the 2024 election takes place, he will be just weeks away from his 82nd birthday, almost a decade older than Mr Reagan, when he won re-election in 1984.
The president insists he intends to run again.
“I plan to contest the election again. That’s my hope,” he said in March.
Say he doesn’t, though. in that case, Vice President Kamala Harris The Democratic Party would be the clear favorite for the nomination.
Before running for the presidency herself in 2020, and losing to Biden, Ms Harris was a US senator representing California. Prior to this she was the state’s Attorney General.
He is largely seen as a more progressive politician than Mr Biden. If you are interested in knowing more about him, here is a more detailed explainer.
How many beaten presidents have come back to win again?
Just one, as we mentioned above.
Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, won power in 1884 and then lost to Republican Benjamin Harrison four years later.
He returned to his work in the private sector as a lawyer in New York. But Mr. Cleveland re-entered politics before the 1892 election, and ended up taking his revenge on Mr. Harrison.
Three other presidents have tried to retake the White House after losing elections: Martin Van Buren, Millard Fillmore and Herbert Hoover.
None of them succeeded.