The Week Ahead – Economic Data, the BoC and the ECB and Russia in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 61 stats due out through the week ending 15-April. In the week prior, 33 stats were in focus.

For the Dollar:

The week kicks off with inflation figures due out on Tuesday. Expect plenty of market sensitivity to the numbers following last week’s hawkish FOMC meeting minutes.

On Wednesday, wholesale inflation figures will also draw interest ahead of a busy end of the week.

With the markets closed on Friday, retail sales, consumer sentiment, and jobless claims will influence this Thursday. A slump in consumer spending, a rise in jobless claims, and a fall in consumer sentiment would be market risk negative. Such a combination is unlikely to deter the Fed, however.

In the week ending April-08, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 1.18% to 99,796.

For the EUR:

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are out on Tuesday. The markets will likely accept another deterioration in sentiment as Russia continues to bomb Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Eurozone industrial production figures will also draw attention.

The main event of the week, however, is the ECB monetary policy decision. A shift in stance on interest rates to curb inflation would support the EUR.

Finalized inflation figures for member states are also due out. We do not expect the numbers to materially influence the EUR, however.

For the week, the EUR slid by 1.50% to $ 1.0877.

For the Pound:

Industrial and manufacturing production, trade, and GDP numbers are out on Monday. Expect the production and GDP numbers to garner the most interest.

On Tuesday, the focus shifts to claimant count and unemployment figures ahead of inflation numbers on Wednesday.

Expect plenty of sensitivity to this week’s stats as the markets pencil in monthly rate hikes through to November.

The Pound fell by 0.68% to end the week at $ 1.3025.

For the Loonie:

It’s a quiet week. Economic data includes wholesale sales and manufacturing sales figures. We do not expect the numbers to influence, however, with the BoC monetary policy decision on Wednesday the main event.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.40% to C $ 1.2572 against the US Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead. Early in the week, business and consumer confidence figures will draw interest.

On Thursday, employment numbers for March will be the key, however. A sharp increase in hiring would support an RBA move on cash rates.

The Aussie Dollar slipped by 0.51% to $ 0.7458.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Early in the week, the focus will be on electronic card retail sales and business confidence. While both sets of numbers will draw interest, electronic card retail sales will likely have more influence on the Kiwi.

On Thursday, Business PMI numbers are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the Kiwi Dollar.

The main event of the week will be the RNNZ monetary policy decision.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 1.13% to $ 0.6849.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a quiet week ahead. There are no material stats to provide the Japanese with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Japanese Yen in the hands of market risk sentiment and monetary policy divergence.

The Japanese Yen slumped by 1.49% to end the week at ¥ 124.34 against the US Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busier week ahead, with inflation and trade data due out. Both sets of numbers will draw plenty of interest.

While the stats will provide riskier assets with direction, updates from China on COVID-19 and lockdown measures will also need monitoring.

In the week ending April 08, the Yuan slipped by 0.03% to end the week at 6.3650 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of ​​focus in the week ahead, with the markets looking for news of a ceasefire.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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