Domestic travel could cost up to four times more after Comair grounding

With Comair’s Kulula and British Airways aircrafts out of the skies, domestic air travelers should be prepared to pay up to three to four times more for their flight tickets. This is as airline capacity has reportedly dropped 40% since Comair’s business rescue practitioners announced plans to liquidate the airline.

FlySafair’s Chief Marketing Officer Kirby Gordon tells Moneyweb that since news of Comair’s permanent grounding went public, the airline has seen an uptick in flight prices, adding that this is expected to be more pronounced during the approaching holiday season.

“We are price takers, so pricing is always a result of supply and demand forces in the market and when one [is] approached with a situation like we are at the moment where supply is being constrained relative to the demand that is out there, we are going to see increases in prices, that is only natural, ”Gordon says.

“We may well see some higher prices come the end of the month when we are looking at school holidays… and very constrained availability on those flights.”

On Thursday, Comair’s business rescue practitioners (BRP) in a media release announced that it had lodged a court application to liquidate the 76-year-old airline, citing a failure to raise the necessary funding to save the airline.

The BRPs attributed the airline’s failure to various reasons, including Covd-19-related lockdown regulations which restricted air travel as well as the upshoot in operational costs – impacted by spiraling fuel and oil prices – and the decision by SA aviation authorities to suspend the airline’s aircraft operating certificate (AOC) earlier this year.

On Thursday, the Simple Flying publication reported that Comair’s grounding will see the industry losing 19,000 domestic flights, about a quarter of the industry’s capacity, leaving much of the market to competitors FlySafair and Airlink.

Prices to normalize in 2023

According to SA Flyer Editor Guy Leitch, domestic air travelers may have to stomach these price increases at least until 2023, when the aviation industry is expected to start settling down from this most recent crisis.

“Its going to be quite a slow process because you can not just buy a new airplane and you can not just expand with finding new pilots and air crew. So, I’m not expecting to see much stability before the end of the year – and then of course we’ll be in the end-of-the-year rush – so I think the knock-on effects are going to continue at least until 2023, ”Leitch explains.

Further, he says that given the kind of market structure the aviation industry operates in, there is not much the South African Competition Commission (CompCom) can do to regulate price movements. Much like the rest of us, the CompCom will be forced to wait for the market to reach its new equilibrium.

“The Competition Commission says its going to keep an eye on prices, but they can not because the market has to find its own equilibrium and that means that prices will be very expensive until the other airlines can take up the slack.”

Growth to service demand

Comair’s abrupt exit from the market has placed enormous pressure on existing airlines to take up the gap left by the grounding of Kulula and British Airways fleets. To do that remaining players, like FlySafair, will have to ramp up their capacity.

Gordon says although doing so will not be a quick process, FlySafair is looking to grow its capacity to serve the market.

“These are long-term plans, but we have been planning growth. We have another aircraft entering our fleet next month, so the timing for that is quite good, ”he says.

“We’ve obviously been recruiting to accommodate that, and we actually still have an additional two that will come into our fleet this year. So, there are growth plans on the horizon which will help to a certain extend to alleviate this situation. ”

In a statement to Moneyweb, Airports Company South Africa (Acsa) acknowledged the gap left by Comair’s grounding but the airport management company expressed confidence that the aviation industry will recover from this blow.

“There are several players in keeping any one airline operational and the ripple effects of one airline ceasing to operate is most likely going to be felt along the entire value chain, including Acsa,” says Acsa’s acting group manager of communications Gopolang Peme.

“While Acsa will most certainly feel the absence of Comair, we are confident in the recovery of the overall aviation eco-system and are encouraged by the early signs of recovery,” Peme adds.

Read:

The failed rescue of Comair was a gamble from the beginning

How not to run an airline (Comair edition)

Liquidation for Kulula owner Comair as business rescue fails

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