As Aaron Judge continues to hunt his own American League home run record of 62can we chase the positive expected value of his home run prop.
This comes when the true probability of the umpire hitting a long ball is higher than the odds in the betting book suggest.
Judge owns one MLB– Leading 51 home runs, including two home runs in four straight games.
The Yankees captain proves time and time again that when it rains, it pours.
He has struck seven home runs in his last six gamesnine in his last 10 and 10 in his last 13.
Judge will face Mitchell Parker at Nationals Park when the Bombers begin a three-game set against the unfamiliar Nationals on Monday.
While Washington’s rookie pitcher is showing his longevity in the rotation, he’s still working through major league learning curves.
Parker is allowing 1.17 home runs per nine innings, according to FanGraphs, and has given up three over his previous three starts.
He throws his fastball 50 percent of the time, which is his most vulnerable pitch for high exit velocity, and is clocked at 95 mph or higher at a 42.1 percent rate.
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Judge is enjoying a career best against fastballs: He’s hitting .391 on them with 28 home runs.
THE PPEL: Aaron Judge Home Run (+158, FanDuel)