When the Bills travel to host the Saints in an unofficial Thursday night game to complete the NFL Thanksgiving action (20:20 ET, NBC), it will be about two fading playoff teams trying to get back on track.
Buffalo (6-4) has dropped to No. 7 seed position in the AFC playoff picture. New Orleans (5-5) has also dropped to last place in the NFC playoffs. Aside from the draw, one team will keep slipping while the other will get off the mat.
The Bills have slowed down offensively with Josh Allen, and last week their strong defense was torn to the ground by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. The Saints are struggling to find an offensive identity with Trevor Siemian starting at QB and running back Alvin Kamara (knee), their best offensive weapon, and lacking time. Their strong running defense was also burned in Week 11 by Jalen Hurts and Eagles.
Will the Bills get caught as they look forward to the Patriots? Or will the Saints think too much about next week’s shots against the Cowboys?
Here is everything to know about betting on Bills vs. Saints in Week 12, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for the 2021 NFL Thanksgiving game.
MORE THANKSGIVING CHOICES: Straight up | Against the spread
Bills vs. Saints odds for NFL Thanksgiving
- Dispersion: Bills before 6
- Over under: 45.5
- Moneyine: Bills -270, Saints +220
The Bills march into New Orleans as near touchdown favorites despite falling hard for the Colts at home and traveling quite a long way in a short week. However, the Saints have lost three games in a row to the Falcons, Titans and Eagles. The number is about right there, as well as the total given both teams’ usual defensive strengths.
(bets per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bills vs. Saints all-time series
The teams have only met 11 times, with the Saints winning 7-4 in the series. From 2001 to ’17, the Saints have won five consecutive games to turn a deficit into dominance. The Bills last won in New Orleans in December 1998.
Three trends to know
—67 percent of spread bettors expect the Saints to do home-night underdogs in a state of desperation and keep the game closer than six points, denying the bills a roadblock.
—81 percent of over / under players believe that the modest total is too high and go under, given how the Bills and Saints have fought in the attack and are facing good defenses.
– The Bills are 5-4-1 against the spread along with their 6-4 straight-up record. The total number has gone over in half of their matches. The Saints have 5-5 ATS to match their record, but the total has gone over in six of their games.
Three things to see
Will there be more Taysom Hill?
The Saints have just reversed Hills’ contract to motivate him as either a special jack of all offensive trades for Sean Payton or their direct starting quarterback soon. Hill has been in pain, first with a concussion and then a foot injury. But he is healthy now and Siemian (right hand) is working on his own problem. With Kamara and Mark Ingram (knee) sore, New Orleans desperately needs to throw the Hill wrinkle against the Bills’ defense.
Stefon Diggs Vs. the saints
He burned them for the “Minneapolis Miracle” when he played wide receiver for the Vikings. In two games in the regular season against the Saints, Diggs has also caught 17 of 19 goals for 212 yards and 3 TDs. In his last two games for the Bills, Diggs has caught 12 of 19 goals in total for 185 yards and 3 TDs. The Saints have Marshon Lattimore, but they can be torn down elsewhere. Safety Marcus Williams will never forget how Diggs got past him in the playoffs.
Bills’ run defense
There is no Taylor type in this game with Kamara on the shelf. The Bills still have the No. 9 defense in the NFL despite Taylor beating them to submission last week. Should they shut the Saints down behind a weakened offensive line missing Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk, they should win easily.
State that matters
181.8. That’s how many passing yards per game on average the Bills provide this season, second only to the Panthers. The Saints, meanwhile, are No. 22, giving up an average of 252.2 passing yards per carry. match. Allen should feel comfortable with a pass-happy approach. Siemian, who is on the verge of losing important playing time to Hill, is on his way to several big games at home after throwing a choice six against the Eagles.
Bills vs. Saints’ prediction
The Bills are a much more talented and complex team with coach Sean McDermott. They have hit a chin with Allen, who needs to adapt to the defense and has some limitations in the passing game. But Diggs and defense can do lots of damage just to take care of business and avoid falling into a trap.
Bills 27, Saints 17