An analysis by Sky News has found that the Indian coronavirus version is now in effect in a fifth of England’s regions.
The latest data showed that the B.1.617.2 variant – now called Delta – was dominant in 67 out of 315 local authorities (21%) where at least five cases were found for the two weeks ending May 22 Had gone.
This means that in those regions, the variant accounts for 51% to 100% of cases.
Overall, 230 local authorities (73%) had reported at least one case of the variant, according to the most recent data from the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
Meanwhile, cases in London and the South East are still rising.
According to the most recent Welcome Sanger data, the Indian version made up 66.7% of new cases in England in the week ending May 22.
But an analysis of the latest data by Tom Wensleers, Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Leuven in Belgium, suggests it may be as high as 76%.
canto The variant – B.1.1.7 – which emerged in the South East in December, was responsible for almost all reported cases in England by early April.
When the Indian variant was first identified that month, it grew rapidly in areas such as Bolton, Blackburn with Darwin and Bedford.
But it has now spread to most regions, according to mathematician Alex Selby of the University of Cambridge, with infections doubling every eight days across the country.
The Kent version now dominates only 39 local authorities (12%), with Indian now spreading the fastest across the country.
According to Mr. Selby, it is up to 70% more permeable than the old one.
Bolton still has the highest level of variant cases in the country.
But the latest data released by Public Health England for the week ending May 19 shows that infections there and in other so-called ‘hotspots’ are starting to plateau.
In the town, infections began to rise among teenagers and then spread to young adults, but there has not yet been a similar increase in cases in older, double-vaccinated age groups.
Hope the vaccine is working and has given more vulnerable, older people a significant proportion of the protection against the variant.
Research has shown that the two-dose vaccine variant reduces the risk of serious illness by up to 88%.
So if we are entering a third wave of cases, it is unlikely to result in more hospitalizations and deaths.
Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “So far there hasn’t been a significant increase in hospitalizations, which he says is encouraging.
“When the cases increased like last time, the hospital admissions increased rapidly. That’s what I hope for,” he said.
This is why Vaccines Minister Nadim Jahvi has said that he wants all people over 50 to be fully vaccinated by June 21.
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But as independent SAGE member Professor Christina Pejel points out, even with the vaccine rollout in place, not everyone is safe.
“Even if cases become really high even with vaccines, it will still be a problem,” she said.
“The variant will be found in people who have not been vaccinated and the small number for whom the vaccine does not work.”
With this additional exposure to the variant’s vaccines, the government’s objective of easing COVID restrictions completely on June 21 could be jeopardized.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the data is “still unclear” how jabs are vulnerable and how well the NHS is protected, but a final decision will be made on 14 June.
© Sky News 2021
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