GDP forecasts by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi, Stanchart

Workers work in a swimsuit factory in Jinjiang in southeast China’s Fujian province on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.

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BEIJING – Ahead of China’s quarterly growth figures on Monday, most major investment banks have trimmed their economic forecasts for the year and warned that sudden power outages and a downturn in the real estate market could slow growth.

CNBC tracked estimates for China’s full – year GDP from 13 major banks, 10 of which have lowered their forecasts since August. The median forecast is a growth of 8.2% this year, after the latest cuts. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous median forecast.

Of the companies tracked by CNBC, the Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China of 7.7%. Southeast Asia’s largest bank, DBS, has the highest with 8.8%.

Here are the banks’ forecasts for the full year:

Banks lowering China’s GDP forecast

Banks that did not change China’s forecast

  • Swiss credit: 8.2%.
  • DBS: 8.8%.
  • UBS: 8.2%.

China’s economic landscape

Negative growth factors have increased this year, ranging from slower-than-expected consumption spending to disturbing floods. Increasing uncertainty is widespread in Beijing legislative obstacles, including on indebted property developers and alleged monopolistic behavior from internet technology giants.

Strong export growth is still a bright spot. China’s economic expansion is still accelerating The IMF’s global growth forecast of 5.9%.

Analysts have said China is seizing the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy. The official GDP target of more than 6% this year is much lower than what investment banks are investing in.

– CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.


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