May 9, 2021


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Has the Covid-19 vaccine reduced the spread of the virus? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

THere are two ways vaccines can slow the spread of the virus. First of all, it may help you to avoid getting infected. Second, even if you are uninfected and infected, it can reduce the risk of transmission. It is important that you understand its size.

Two new major studies have taken advantage of the opportunity to launch a vaccine in the UK. An Oxford-ONS review of the more than 370,000 participants in the study it was found that the disease was reduced by 65% ​​after one drink. To prevent the virus, one dose was equivalent to having the original virus. There were no significant differences between the two vaccines available.

Surprisingly, the incidence of the disease was low until three weeks before the outbreak. Did the virus have magic before it happened and left? Most striking is the idea of ​​”change that causes”. People can only get vaccinated if they have not been tested or have recent symptoms, so it is inevitable that there were fewer pre-vaccinated infections. Statistics can be complex.

Most importantly, this study showed that if you get the virus after you have been vaccinated, it becomes much easier, in terms of self-awareness and the number of viruses.

If vaccinated people become infected, they will not be able to get the virus.

This seems so. Public Health England surveyed more than 500,000 families in England and estimated that uncircumcised cases infected about 10% of the population in their families. But the figure was about half, up to about 6%, if the original case received the vaccine, with a similar reduction to the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

Put these two studies together and that means that out of every 6 people who are not vaccinated against the virus, only one would get sick if they had a jab.

People in groups communicate through their networks: viruses go hand in hand with links. Evidence builds that the Covid-19 vaccine reduces this spread. When you get vaccinated, you help protect those around you.

The program of Vaccination production in the UK it is an amazing achievement: protecting people directly and those who connect with them and give more scientific requirements to the world.

David Spiegelhalter is the chairman of the Winton Center for Risk and Evidence Communication in Cambridge. Anthony Masters is an accountant for the Royal Statistical Society