NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its winter weather forecasts for the Chicago area, with La Niña expected to affect conditions in the Great Lakes this season.
These forecasts call for wetter than normal conditions in the Chicago area, and paint an interesting picture of how things could pan out in the city and surrounding suburbs.
A La Niña pattern, much like an El Niño, can have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns, although experts warn that the former is more difficult to predict.
What is a La Niña event?
A La Niña pattern occurs when the trade winds shift and blow warmer water towards Asia. This then allows colder water to rise to the surface, which then pushes the Polar Jetstream further north and channels storm systems towards the Chicago area.
What usually happens during winters where La Niña is present?
According to the University of Illinois, Winters during La Niña tend to be warmer and wetter than average, with more frequent snow and winter storms.
The university warns that there are usually fewer strong La Niña patterns, making their effects more difficult to predict.
What is this year’s forecast from the Climate Prediction Center?
The winter forecasts are requires wetter than normal conditions in the Great Lakes, with above average temperatures and drier conditions expected in the southern United States.
This would fit the typical development of a La Niña pattern, as explained by the University of Illinois.
The big question revolves around projected temperatures, with NOAA saying there is an “equal chance” of temperatures above or below normal during meteorological winter.
That will play a major role in whether the Chicago area sees predominantly rain or snow during the winter months, and the CPC says it usually stays away from forecasting snowfall due to the unpredictable nature of blizzards in the area.