Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, selection and prediction

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That Miami heat (12-6) meet Minnesota Timberwolves (8-9) Wednesday in Target Center for a match at. 20 ET. Below we look at Heat vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA selections, predictions and bets.

Miami has won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS), the most recent being a 100-92 victory over the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday as favorites at 10.5 points. Heat is 12-6 ATS and 10-8 O / U with the third best net rating (plus-7.5).

Minnesota enters a four-game winning streak and five-game cover series, which includes a 43-point defeat of the Memphis Grizzlies last weekend. T-Wolves are 8-9 ATS and 5-12 O / U with the 11th best net rating (plus-2.0).

These teams shared last year’s season series 1-1, with the home team winning and covering both meetings. The Over has cashed in six straight Heat-Timberwolves games and nine of the last 10.

Also see: Bet Slippin ‘Podcast: NBA collapse on November 24th

Heat to the Timberwolves odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports odds for a complete list. Lines last updated at 15:25 ET.

  • Money line: Heat -112 (bet $ 112 to win $ 100) | Timberwolves -108 (bet $ 108 to win $ 100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-102) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-122)
  • Over / Under (O / U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Heat on Timberwolves key injuries

Heat

  • Nothing affects gambling odds.

Timberwolves

  • SF Josh Okogie (back) questionable

Heat to Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions

Forecast

Heat 107, Timberwolves 103

Money line

BET 1 unit on HEAT (-112) because they stylistically match well against the T-Wolves, and Miami has a massive strength-on-weakness advantage in its favor.

For example, the Heat attempt is the fourth-highest volume of mid-range field goals, and the T-Wolves are 18th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers.

Miami also has the highest offensive FT / FGA rate in the association, and Minnesota has the worst defensive FT / FGA rate.

One major reason Heat excels at getting to the charity strip is that Jimmy Butler the average of the second most free throw attempts per fight in the NBA.

Butler could also be extra motivated at this point, as T-Wolves is his former employer and he is battling last year’s No. 1 overall pick in the Minnesota wing Anthony Edwards.

Finally, the Heat play very well against good teams (7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record), and the T-Wolves are better than their sub-.500 record indicates.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Minnesota has the third worst win difference based on efficiency difference. Basically, the T-Wolves have 2.5 fewer wins than they should. Butler and the Heat should be motivated to play against an up-and-coming team.

All of these factors lead to me WET that HEAT (-112) to pull this out.

Against the spread

PASS BY as Miami’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than Heat -1.5 (-102). Do not be cheap, just put it with Miami directly.

Over under

PASS BY with a slight “lean” to Under 213.5 (-112), as according to Pregame.com there is “reverse line movement” heading south. Almost 90% of the action is on Over.

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