Six straight games between the Blue Jays and Yankees have gone over that closing total, with the AL East foes averaging 12.5 runs per game during that stretch.
I’m betting on more of the same in Sunday’s battle.
Although reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees, I’m starting to see signs of regression.
Over the past two seasons, he’s lost two ticks of velocity on his fastball, resulting in a drastic drop in strikeout rate, a slight increase in walk rate and a monstrous increase in home runs — Cole has allowed nine in 35 innings this season.
Ultimately, Cole’s earned run metrics (5.40 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 5.54 FIP, 4.30 xFIP) reflect his regressive profile.
He was also scratched from his last outing due to “body fatigue”, which doesn’t give me much confidence.
Conversely, Toronto will start Yariel Rodriguez, a solid arm but ultimately too erratic to rely on (14 percent walk rate).
Behind him is the worst bullpen in the baseball (-1.4 fWAR), which got worse after trading away Yimi Garcia (0.8 fWAR).
These tired, limping arms will face two of baseball’s hottest lineups.
The Blue Jays are producing more offensively behind the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
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Meanwhile, the Yankees have been unstoppable after pairing Jazz Chisholm Jr. with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Those two lineups combined for 13 runs on Friday and 11 on Saturday, and I don’t see anything changing on Sunday, especially with winds blowing out toward center field during the first pitch.
THE PLAY: Over 9.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)