Modeling predicts another COVID-19 peak in Australian state by February

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SYDNEY, November 23 (Xinhua) — COVID-19 cases in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) could rise and reach another peak in February as the state plans to lift all restrictions for fully vaccinated people by mid-February. The range showed a research pattern.

The study, published Monday, was compiled by OzSAGE, a multidisciplinary network of healthcare professionals. It has updated the current modeling of the COVID-19 “roadmap” that predicts the state’s outbreak of the Delta virus strain since mid-June.

Under the current circumstances, experts warn NSW could face another spike in cases, possibly peaking around two months from 15 December.

One of the main reasons for this increase will be reduced vaccine immunity about six months after people become susceptible to the virus again.

Meanwhile, NSW plans to welcome international travelers from 1 December and lift all COVID-19 restrictions by 15 December, when 95 percent of the eligible population is expected to be fully vaccinated.

Experts say that countries such as Denmark and Singapore have seen increases despite high vaccination rates recently, and Australia should be prepared for future increases.

Professor Raina MacIntyre of the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales (UNSW), who contributed to the OzSAGE report, said: “As we open Australia, it should be taken into account that COVID-19 is impacting our health systems.”

“As cases increase, the health system is strained… and Australia must be prepared for future fluctuations,” MacIntyre said. Said.

However, experts believe NSW’s prognosis will improve significantly if testing and contact tracing capacity is maintained at high levels as children aged 5 to 11 are soon eligible for vaccination and childcare and schools soon become the “new frontier”. COVID-19.

NSW Health officials said on Tuesday that 81 percent of people aged 12 to 15 years have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 75.4 percent are fully vaccinated.

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