BILLS at DOLPHINS
20:15, Dolphins by 1 ½, 49
HANKS LOVES: Both teams had to come from behind to win the first day and that makes reading their relative strengths difficult. However, it feels like this is a bigger game for the Dolphins. If they’re going to make any noise in the playoffs, that means winning the division, staying home and avoiding the cold climates they faced in Kansas City a year ago. To do so, they must defeat the Bills at home with the Week 18 rematch in Buffalo. Their problem is that they are 2-11 in the regular season and playoffs against Josh Allen, who has torched them for 36 passing TDs and five more with his legs in that span. Straight up, the Dolphins have won nine of their last 11 games at Hard Rock Stadium, but are just 2-4 against Allen. Allen is on the injured list with an injury to his non-throwing hand. Knowing the competitor as he is, it shouldn’t affect him.
Miami won Sunday’s game with huge defensive plays. Its explosive offense was contained by the Jaguars. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards but they were quiet yards short of Tyreek Hill’s long TD. If the Dolphins are going to turn the tables on the Bills, they will need a lot more from their running game. De’Von Achane carried 10 times for just 24 yards and Raheem Mostert was stoned for just nine yards on six carries. Both are nursing injuries – Achane an ankle and Mostert his chest – and with the short week that’s a big concern. The Dolphins O-line didn’t exactly alleviate preseason concerns, allowing eight tackles for loss and three sacks. Now they face a very tough matchup in edge rusher Greg Rousseau, who was a one-man team against the Cardinals with three sacks, three tackles for loss, six quarterback pressures and a forced fumble.
IF I WERE A REAL MAN: Bills and over.