Home Uncategorized Our AFL Round 12 Picks and Burst Ratings

Our AFL Round 12 Picks and Burst Ratings


Given that the fixture for Round 12 is as fluid as the full season schedule last year, we’re not only late this week awaiting a final decision on the sites, but we’ll be talking about our choices this week. Will be really early because we still don’t believe what the weekend will look like and want to talk a bit more about the predictive significance.

So, as of Tuesday night, what do the numbers that follow football say about Round 12 games.

Brisbane will directly beat Melbourne. With the game finally being decided at Giants Stadium, the line has been logical but wrong: Melbourne by 4.5 points. However, ELO-FF gives Brisbane a two-goal lead, and you’ll see why when you dig in. After a 1-3 start, the Lions have won seven games in a row and are flying, while the Demons, though coming out of the Bulldogs’ impressive control, haven’t been able to handle opponents like Brisbane.

We could be wrong – we were picking against Melbourne last week – but we haven’t picked wrong for Brisbane in recent weeks. If we are correct then our normal (purely hypothetical) $2 bet would pay out $4.20.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Sydney will beat St Kilda – says ELO-FF rating of 23 at SCG. While neither the Crows nor the Swans have been able to stop their stellar start, Sydney showed last week that they are the favorites to stay in eight despite the competition immediately behind them. And St Kilda’s inconsistency makes them a really good bet to lose from the final and in Round 12 itself.

With Brody Grundy, ironically, I think this is a rally-the-troops moment for Collingwood. Our numbers tell them to take against the 14.5-point spread across Adelaide, and that’s why I agree with the numbers. Not that they will necessarily win, but they will keep it close, and I’ll bet it will be close to the end.

Richmond will beat Essendon, but our ratings show a much closer game than the 12.5-point spread pundits are projecting as of Tuesday evening. Last night it was one point higher – punters know what. Be warned: we’re only taking on the Tigers to win, not cover.

Carlton is preferred over the Eagles by 1.5 points; It is basically a coin toss. If it’s in Optus, it’ll be an easy call: all the way to the West Coast. Elsewhere and the road to better play under pressure from the Eagles plus Patrick Cripps, the road ratings show that Carlton deserves that slight edge and our hypothetical $2 bet, which was paying out $3.66 as of Tuesday evening.

Bulldogs are favored by Fremantles over 17. Our numbers say it should be 28 – it went up a point since opening at 16. Longtime readers know what I’m going to say: Footscray plus points equals easy money over the long haul. Yes, I know it was lost last week.

Like everyone else, we live Star Trek: Voyager last week (seven out of nine); We lost one of our seven conservative bets—Geelong didn’t cover thanks to the Magpies’ fourth-quarter wakeup—but the other six paid off enough to make two percent on the round. That’s up $9.50 compared to the $198 we estimate this season, which is less than five percent off, but better than what the establishment wants you to make.

Overall ELO-FF numbers have been on the winning side of 60–38 results with a tie this season (61 percent) and have chosen the winners 72 times out of 99 times (73 percent).

Jack McCray of the Bulldogs (c) celebrates a goal

(Photo by Daniel Pocket/Getty Images)

Here’s something we haven’t talked about in a whole season: Burst ratings.

Each team has a rating under the ELO-following football system that adjusts slightly each week depending on how far along the outcome of the game is. Team rating changes are capped at ten points per game, and once it hits eight points the circuit breaker slows down the change, and it does the same in the trash time of blowout games.

The important thing to remember about any type of ELO rating is that any team connects second team for its rating subtract From its rating, so the overall will always be the same. The average team rating in the AFL is 50, so the total for the 18 teams in the league is always 900.

However, we can start experimenting with something we call burst ratings this season. I’ll be honest: We stole the original idea from a few other computer systems guys who were doing the same thing – Matt Cowgill in The Ark was the first person I saw using it.

The point is to give us an idea of ​​what a team looks like in a sample of a game rather than over a longer period. This doesn’t seem useful in itself in terms of being predictive, but it can shed some light on how teams are progressing over a specified period of time. Let’s use Friday night’s potentially blockbuster game between Brisbane and Melbourne to show you how it’s used.

You read the burst rating the same way you read any ELO-following football rating: 50 is average, and the higher the better. But since they are one-shot ratings, there is no correlation between one week and the next, except that they are being produced by the same team. There are already teams that have achieved a triple-digit burst rating in one week and negative the next.

Here, for example, are the burst ratings for the 10-1 top-ladder Melbourne Monsters for the first six games of the season – all wins, all well above average:

  • 69.9 (against Fremantle)
  • 74.5 (against St Kilda)
  • 83.8 (against GWS)
  • 82.0 (against Geelong)
  • 93.6 (against Hawthorne)
  • 105.7 (against Richmond)
  • Average Burst Rating: 84.9.

Now look at their most recent five match-ups – overall no more difficult than the first six:

  • 46.6 (against North Melbourne)
  • 57.7 (against Sydney)
  • 73.8 (against Carlton)
  • 32.4 (defeat against Adelaide)
  • 117.0 (against the Western Bulldogs)
  • Average burst rating 65.5.

To make the difference more dramatic, take away the win over the Bulldogs – its four-week run average was only 52.6, or 32 points less than the previous six games. And since they will undoubtedly be aiming for that game, it makes sense that there were fewer people on either side.

By comparison, here are the first four games for the then 1-3 Brisbane Lions:

  • 11.5 (against Sydney)
  • 65.0 (against Geelong)
  • 55.8 (against Collingwood)
  • 54.8 (against the Western Bulldogs)
  • Average Burst Rating 46.8

And here are seven subsequent victories for the now 8-3 Lions:

  • 102.9 (against Essendon)
  • 71.4 (against Carlton)
  • 111.8 (against Port Adelaide)
  • 56.9 (against Fremantle)
  • 122.1 (against the Gold Coast)
  • 83.0 (against Richmond)
  • 113.6 (against GWS)
  • Average burst rating of 46.8, more than double the average.

We haven’t collected or analyzed enough data on Burst Ratings to know how functional or predictive they are, but we will, and if they’re worth the time to share with you in our analyses, we certainly will. Will include them in myself. Next season prediction. As far as it goes, this is at least anecdotal evidence to support our belief that Brisbane will do very well against the demons on Friday night.

I messed around a bit and found that the continuation of those two trends comes close to a continuation if the Lions win by 20 points. The ‘normal’ rating for Brisbane came with a win margin of a fraction of less than 12. Burst ratings feel like a genuine endorsement of that nervous prediction – picking up against the league leader is generally a silly game!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of knews.uk and knews.uk does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

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