When the Patriots (6-4) travel to play the Falcons (4-5) to open the NFL Week 11 on “Thursday Night Football” (20:20 ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), they will be watching stay hot with their fifth victory in a row. While New England wants to keep winning to improve on its stronger AFC playoff chances, the Falcons want to avoid a fade from the NFC wildcard race.
Rookie Mac Jones looks good on QB for the Patriots with the running game and defense, who also play at a high level. Falcons veteran opponent Matt Ryan is struggling with an inconsistent season due to his dwindling weapons in a new offensive.
Will the Patriots keep rolling, or will the Falcons “get up” to get off the mat, just as they did against the Saints two weeks ago?
Here’s all there is to know about betting on the Patriots vs. Falcons in Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Thursday Night Football”.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
Patriots vs. Falcons odds for Thursday Night Football
- Dispersion: Patriots with 6.5
- Over under: 47.5
- Moneyine: -290, +235
The Patriots have become slightly bigger favorites from the opening 6-point line to their advantage. The Falcons have not been very offensive, and the Patriots have been near dominant defensively, which adds up to the lowest number of points.
(bets per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patriots vs. Falcons all-time series
The teams have only met 15 times with the Patriots with a 9-6 advantage. They met in the regular season 2017, where the Patriots won 23-7 in a rematch of Super Bowl 51, where the Patriots erased a late 28-3 deficit to get another ring with Tom Brady. The Patriots have taken six games in a row in the series, following a four-game winning streak by the Falcons
Three trends to know
-77 percent of spread bettors believe the Falcons are better than that as home night underdogs and like that they cover inside a touchdown.
-57 percent of over / under players think the total number of points is too low given that the Patriots’ offense is on fire and the Falcons can make some garbage goals with Ryan.
– The Patriots are 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 right up in their last 10 games, where the total has gone over in half of them. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS and 4-6 SU in their last 10 games. The total number has gone over six times in that time period.
Three things to see
Who will drive the ball for the Patriots?
The Patriots have red-hot rookie Rhamdondre Stevenson, but Damien Harris has been approved to play to join him to make it a strong 1-2 hit in the backfield again. Expect the Falcons to stop the race and force Jones to beat them down the road. Still, the Patriots should remain effective, whether or not they open up things across the field for Jones.
Who will catch the ball for the Falcons?
The Falcons replaced Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley, who should be their best wide receiver, is out to take a personal break from the game. They will also be without the other tight-end Hayden Hurst (ankle) for the match, and wide receiver / running back Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), their best and most dynamic offensive weapon all season for new coach Arthur Smith, is a match-making decision. The Patriots’ passing defense is tough with good pressure and fine corner kicks. Ryan could come to another tough fight after last week’s Cowboys debacle. You can bet New England will also plan to take its best remaining goalie, rookie-tight-end Kyle Pitts, out of the game.
Will Jones roll again or Ryan rebound?
Speaking of Ryan, he’s been on a roller coaster in yet another offense for him, which is usually the case. He has limited protection on top of lower level weapons except Pitts. He should fight again with the Patriots’ amoeba planning. Jones should feel comfortable against Dean Pees’ defense, as Belichick knows all about it. The race will set the pass nicely up for tight-end Hunter Henry, wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and others.
State that matters
246.2. This is how many average passing yards per battle The Falcons defense gives up. They are not good at controlling quarterbacks who can spread the ball around to a variety of wide receivers and also implement the tight end well. The Patriots qualify as that kind of attack with the young, growing confidence Jones.
Patriots vs. Falcons prediction
The Patriots are on fire, and with Belichick, they tend to take care of so-called trap games like this. Belichick has owned the Falcons, and that should not change here vis-à-vis Smith. Jones, back near Alabama in Atlanta, is putting together another strong fight to advance his offensive rookie of the year push, and more importantly, get New England closer to a return to the playoffs.
Patriots 27, Falcons 20