Gold Has fallen below $1900. Now, although the weakness of the dollar contributed to a partial tailwind, it was not enough for gold to close positive on Tuesday. Gold bulls are close to technical gains, despite slight downside. A two month old price uptrend exists on the daily bar chart and the next resistance for Gold is near $1959, last seen in December 2020. Meanwhile, immediate support for gold in COMEX lies at $1885.
The next move for gold is expected on Friday when the US Department of Labor releases its non-farm payrolls report for May. A disappointing non-farm payroll could push gold prices The US dollar and yields may move higher if better than expected numbers. Hedge funds and investors have covered their short positions and added long positions as speculative interest in gold has risen for four consecutive weeks.
Some caution is needed as the Momentum Oscillator RSI_14 is now in the overbought zone around 75. Anything above the 70 level is considered overbought, so long positions should be placed with a strict stoploss. On MCX, prices are still above its 200-day moving average and we recommend taking some gains from the table as gold in COMEX is trading in overbought zone, while gold in MCX is trading in overbought zone due to a stronger rupee (COMEX) less performance). Just entered the overbought zone. With a stoploss of 48,200, there will be a long way to go around 48,800. Wait for some downside before taking fresh long positions but underlying trend still remains positive.
silver For the last 14 trading sessions, it is closed in the range of 70,900-73,500. Gold is outperforming silver and silver is expected to strengthen above 73,500. 70,000-68,000 is a strong support area for silver and any selling pressure will break below that level. We are more neutral on silver while bullish on gold. Silver will hold if gold manages to break $1920 upwards
crude oil On an upbeat demand outlook and a falling stock pile has reached a nearly 2-year high of $70. OPEC+ gave the green light in July to increase production to 850K bpd, as agreed at a meeting in early April. The oil cartel painted a rosy demand outlook for the second half of this year, predicting that global inventories could fall by 2 million bpd during the September-November period, causing prices to rise to $70. Nuclear talks between the US and Iran have stalled, so it is no longer the only thing keeping prices under pressure. US ISM manufacturing data came in positive, suggesting a strong recovery in the economy. US total inventory fell to a three-month low of 484.35 million barrels, and the trend is set to continue with the arrival of the summer driving season.
This week is a holiday weekend in the US and June is forecast to be hotter which means natural gas There will be a high demand for cooling. Prices are already showing signs of strength and with so much demand in the forecast, thanks to the warming pattern, it is hard to argue for a significant drop in prices. We are bullish on natural gas until 218 prices go down.
Buy Nickel above 1350 | TGT: 1,420 | Stoploss: 1,300
Nickel’s top doubles around 1,348 and needs to break that level to rise anew. The trend is positive but the resistance around 1,348 has created a major resistance for the month of May and the first day of June. So clearly, buyers need to clarify to sellers before raising prices. RSI_14 is at 60 so there is an uptrend. Support comes around 1300 where 20 is the DMA. We recommend long positions above 1350 for a potential target of 1420 and a stoploss of 1300.
buy aluminum | TGT: 203 | Stoploss: 190
Aluminum has shown a V-shaped recovery and price climbed above the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Trend is positive and RSI_14 is near 56. There is no gap on the daily scale and we expect the price to test the 203 level. Therefore we recommend a long position with a stoploss of 190 closing basis.
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