Former President Donald Trump has regained a narrow lead over Kamala Harris in the Polymarket’s forecast for the 2024 presidential electionmarking a sharp turnaround after her surprise appearance at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago Monday.
The Nate Silver-backed prediction market and betting platform now gives Trump a two-point lead over the vice president, 50% to Harris’ 48%.
Trump led Harris in the forecast by as much as 10% when she clinched the party’s nomination for president on August 5.
Harris quickly closed the gap, after her campaign gained momentum, and took the lead in the forecast for the first time on August 8, when the odds favored her over Trump by a 50% to 48% margin.
The Democratic lead in California widened steadily, peaking at 54% to 44% a week later on August 15 before quickly slipping back to a nearly even split, where the rivals have remained until her unannounced appearance at the DNC to pay tribute to President Biden Monday night . .
The forecast’s odds are evenly split between the candidates among six key states. Trump leads in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all of which Biden carried in 2020. The Republican’s lead in Georgia is the largest of the three, where he tops Harris 59% to 41%.
Harris is the odds-on favorite in the Rust Belt battlegrounds, with leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all states Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Harris leads the Great Lake State by nearly 30 points, 64% to 36%.