I really liked the way Matthew Boyd pitched in his Cleveland debut, throwing five one-run innings ball with six strikeouts against the Cubs.
Coming back from Tommy John surgery isn’t easy, but Boyd flashed elite command (113 Location+ mark) in his four-pitch arsenal behind the elite accuracy of his secondary pitches.
He posted a nearly 40% called strike plus whiff rate over his 80-pitch start.
Pitching against the Yankees is never easybut I want to bet on this new Boyd in his second start, where he will likely be stretched even further.
I’m also happy to bet against Yankees starter Luis Gil, who I’ve always considered overrated.
He enjoyed BABIP and bullpen early on, but has since regressed sharply, posting a 5.62 ERA over his last 10 starts.
His command issues are persistent (11 percent walk rate), and I don’t love how his fastball-changeup mix plays out, given that the velocity differential between the two pitches isn’t high.
Cleveland’s offense is in the midst of a slump, but the Guardians are still a relatively talented, patient, contact-based, pesky lineup that can expose Gil.
In recent frames, Cleveland’s bullpen is widely regarded as the best in the sport, leading all teams in reliever ERA (2.67) and WAR (6.4) behind closer Emmanuel Clase (0.63 ERA, 37 saves, 57 IP) and set-up man Cade Smith (1.98 ERA, 81 strikeouts, 59 IP).
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Conversely, The Yankees’ bullpen is mediocre at best.
The play: Guardians (+130, FanDuel)